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global recession 2020

"According to Leipziger, developing countries are facing three major risks as result of the pandemic: "There's the immediate health risk, there's the secondary economic and debt-management risk and there's the third risk that the global system changes in a way that is even less favorable to developing countries. But this is an unprecedented economic crisis. In 2021 global growth is projected at 5.4 percent. That’s according to Oxford Economics economist John Payne, who said in a note that if a world-wide recession occurred this year it would more resemble the dot-com bubble of 2000 than the global financial crisis of 2008. It will make it even harder for lower-income countries to fight poverty and invest in things such as education, which build their economies' future potential to grow. And it's affecting more countries than any recession going back to 1870, even at the height of the Great Depression. "What this crisis shows us is that health is the No. Alternative outcomes to those in the baseline are clearly possible, and not just because of how the pandemic is evolving. But that number masks huge regional and country-level differences, says "The other really important point is that in lower-income countries, you have far more people that are right around the poverty line — under it and just above it," Evans says. In February, forecasters were still expecting economic growth this year. Where economies are reopening, targeted support should be gradually unwound as the recovery gets underway, and policies should provide stimulus to lift demand and ease and incentivize the reallocation of resources away from sectors likely to emerge persistently smaller after the pandemic.Strong multilateral cooperation remains essential on multiple fronts.

"Even before the pandemic, Leipziger says, some richer countries were moving away from global trade and cooperation, which hurt developing countries by reducing investments and cutting off markets for exporting oil, metals and other goods they provide. Kose says this upside scenario would still result in the global economy shrinking by 4%, which is twice the pace of the 2009 global recession. Tommy Trenchard for NPR Tommy Trenchard for NPR Shoppers line up for food outside a supermarket in the township of Khayelitsha in Cape Town during South Africa's lockdown. Many are unhappy with the conditions of their confinement and worry that overcrowding poses a risk of catching the virus. For countries that the World Bank characterizes as "emerging market and developing economies," it is the first time they've experienced a recession as a group in at least 60 years. Sergei Klebnikov ... Amid a global slowdown in economic growth that has seen central banks lower interest rates ... in 2020… But in a matter of weeks, that view changed as countries suddenly locked down and economic activity ground to a halt. Moreover, the forecast assumes that financial conditions—which have eased following the release of theApril 2020 WEO—will remain broadly at current levels. Here Are The Countries On The Brink Of Recession Going Into 2020.

The extent of the recent rebound in financial market sentiment appears disconnected from shifts in underlying economic prospects—as the June 2020 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) Update discusses—raising the possibility that financial conditions may tighten more than assumed in the baseline.All countries—including those that have seemingly passed peaks in infections—should ensure that their health care systems are adequately resourced. In 2021 global growth is projected at 5.4 percent. Tommy Trenchard for NPR Many countries have implemented large-scale social safety net programs and lowered interest rates. Beyond the pandemic, policymakers must cooperate to resolve trade and technology tensions that endanger an eventual recovery from the COVID-19 crisis.

By April, the International Monetary Fund said the global economy would "contract sharply" by 3%. People receive food at a camp set up to house them during the coronavirus lockdown in Cape Town. This recession is the first triggered solely by a pandemic, and low-income countries are particularly hard-hit.A new World Bank report warns that the pandemic has plunged the global economy into a deep recession of historic proportions, and the recovery outlook is grim, particularly for developing countries.The overall global economy is expected to shrink 5.2% this year, according to the report.

Tommy Trenchard for NPR

People receive food at a camp set up to house them during the coronavirus lockdown in Cape Town. These rapid changes could be partially due to how much more information is available to economists now than in the past, but the report says it's also a reflection of how much uncertainty remains about the pandemic — which means the economic fallout could still get much worse. 1 priority," Kose says. Tommy Trenchard for NPR "So a much smaller shock in a low-income country can have a much bigger effect on putting people into poverty.

A global recession in 2020 wouldn’t hit hard, but it would be a long, tough slog back to recovery. Tommy Trenchard for NPR For economies struggling to control infection rates, a lengthier lockdown will inflict an additional toll on activity. This recession is the first triggered solely by a pandemic, and low-income countries are particularly hard-hit. Every 8 to 10 years this process of recession happens and recover automatically. With this recession hitting rich countries just as hard, if not harder, the worry is that investments, trade and tourism in lower-income countries will decrease for longer than usual. Recession is a very common phenomenon of any business cycle. Given that, we need an unprecedented response."

That puts us in the midst of the deepest recession since the end of World War II, the last time there was a comparable drop.

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