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worst recession in canada
Former chief economic analyst for Statistics Canada says Canada's economic recovery won't be easyPhillip Cross argues governments, economists haven't fully grasped the impact of shutting down the economyCross expects last month's job numbers will be far worse than MarchVANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) — The word recession doesn’t really capture how bad the economic impact of this crisis will really be, according to the former chief economic analyst for Statistics Canada.“It stands to reason if you close down all non-essential parts of the economy it’s going to be devastating,” he says.Cross expects April’s job numbers, which come out Friday, will be even worse than the records set last month.Statistics Canada recorded 1,010,700 jobs lost in March across the country, with full-time work falling by 474,000. Philip Cross, with the Macdonald-Laurier Institute , argues governments and policymakers haven’t fully grasped the consequences of restricting and closing down parts of the economy. The contraction bolsters opinions that Canada has been in a recession throughout the pandemic.
"I've always taken the definition of two quarters of negative growth ... but this is just another example that we are in uncharted territory," said Sheila Block, senior economist with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. Economists say there is no doubt that Canada is experiencing a recession, but the exact criteria determining one is underway can be fraught with confusion.Broadly speaking, a recession is a period of business contraction where economic activity declines. Howe Institute's definition of a "pronounced, persistent and pervasive decline in aggregate economic activity" based on both GDP and employment metrics. "For example, with the 2008 and 2009 [recession], we climbed out of it much more quickly than we had out of the early '80s or the mid-'90s recessions," she said.The V-shape refers to a sharp but brief period of economic decline that is followed by a quick rebound.Shifts in the way recessions unfold have pushed economists to seek more accurate ways to characterize them and deal with revisions to economic data that emerge over time, but Block said she doesn't think there is any debate that we are in a recession now.It just may end up looking different than we have seen before, she said. "They said that a recession is basically a period of material decline in economic activity, which typically includes two consecutive negative quarters, but it doesn't have to," he said.
Today’s release from the Office for National Statistics shows not only that Britain has entered the deepest recession in its history, but also that it has suffered the worst recession of any G7 country. Economists say there is no doubt that Canada is experiencing a recession, but the exact criteria determining one is underway can be fraught with confusion. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak) They could be two steps forward, one step back even for a while,” he says.Cross warns the effects of this won’t simply be a short-term blow but could last much longer.“For some sectors, years is going to be the good time required for recovery,” he says, pointing to Air Canada, which recently announced it will take about three years to recover after the pandemic losses. Let's discuss the common causes and symptoms of a recession, how the labour and housing market numbers look, and what the economists are saying about it. {* legalAcceptanceAcceptButton *} You may have created a profile with another 2440 Ash St. Vancouver, BC V5Z 4J6 © 1996-2020 Rogers Media. FILE - A man walks past a closed business, Wednesday, April 29, 2020, in Chagrin Falls, Ohio. Pseudonyms will no longer be permitted.By submitting a comment, you accept that CBC has the right to reproduce and publish that comment in whole or in part, in any manner CBC chooses. {* traditionalSignIn_signInButton *}
Canadian economy mired in its deepest recession on record, with U-shaped recovery likely Back to video In the April 23-28 Reuters poll of 25 economists Canada’s economy was predicted to have contracted at an annualized rate of 9.8 per cent last quarter and to shrink 37.5 per cent this quarter.
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