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japan recession 2008

In 2009, we expect GDP to contract by 0.2%.

It’s going to be three quarters of very negative growth.”Ms. Businesses such as hotels and restaurants that had taken out loans in anticipation of the Olympics might now find themselves unable to meet their obligations.“Depending on the sectors that were generating economic growth before Covid-19 will not be possible in the coming years,” she said.“For many years, I think private sector activity will be very weak. The decline in corporate investment marked the third successive quarter of contraction, a development that is ominous for both exports and employment in 2009.The above data confirm our view that, after several years of decent growth, Japan's economy faces more difficult times. The country’s health system never became overwhelmed. The world's third biggest economy shrank … Abe on Thursday said the government was discussing more measures to prop up the economy.Job losses might be stemmed by Japan’s tight labor market and by rigid hiring practices that make it difficult to lay off employees. The emergency declaration has slowed or stopped work at many large companies and devastated the country’s many small and midsize enterprises, particularly those in the service sector.For more than a month, Tokyo’s bustling business districts have been largely shuttered. Our latest forecasts envisage GDP growth in 2008 slowing sharply to 0.3%, down from around 2% last year. The experiences of China, where the outbreak first emerged in December and January, suggest recovery will be long and difficult.Quarterly change in gross domestic product, seasonally adjusted annual rate.Source: Economic and Social Research Institute (of Japan)Japan will find it no easier.

Japan has not recorded two or more consecutive quarters of GDP contraction since 2001.The second reason for pessimism is that the data do not yet reflect the severe global financial turmoil witnessed in October. Other major economies around the world are set to follow, joining Japan as well as Germany and France in recession, as efforts to contain the outbreak ripple around the globe. Japan's economy fell into recession in the third quarter of 2008, as businesses sharply cut back on spending and as net exports made a negative contribution to growth. School closures forced parents to stay home from work and hammered farms and dairies that make their living selling ingredients for school lunches.

The outbreak crushed Japan’s exports, forced it to postpone the Olympics and then put the country on a soft lockdown as it joined other nations scrambling to stop the coronavirus.“The emergency declaration stopped people from going out, leading to a substantial decline in consumption,” said Kentaro Arita, a senior economist at the Mizuho Research Institute, a think tank in Tokyo. Thus, while private consumption and residential investment boosted GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points, private non-residential investment reduced growth by the same amount. The data underline the impact that the global financial crisis has begun to have on Japan's real economy, and worse is almost certainly to come.Japan's GDP contracted by a seasonally adjusted 0.1% quarter on quarter in the three months to September, according to data published by the Cabinet Office on November 17th.

Between 2004 and 2007 the economy expanded by an average of 2.3% a year; in the same period exports of goods and services grew on average by 9.8%.Concerns about Japan's external prospects are reinforced by the latest GDP data. Japanese exports contributed just 0.1 of a percentage point to growth in the third quarter, and the contribution from net foreign trade—that is, exports minus imports—was negative.

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